Illusions of replication, illusions of truth

Abstract

Shiffrin et al. argue that scientific practice often produces illusions of understanding; situations in which familiar inferential tools generate misplaced confidence. We describe a related illusion that arises not from statistical misapplications, but from ordinary theory testing itself. Here we highlight a different source of epistemic uncertainty or overconfidence; one that emerges even when statistical tools are used correctly, effect sizes are precisely estimated, findings replicate without controversy, and heterogeneity is explicitly acknowledged within hierarchical models.

Citation

Davis-Stober, C. P., Sokratous, K., & Vandekerckhove, J. (in press). Illusions of replication, illusions of truth. Computational Brain & Behavior.

Bibtex

@article{davis-stober_etal:in_press:replication,
    title   = {{I}llusions of replication, illusions of truth},
    author  = {Davis-Stober, Clintin P. and Sokratous, Konstantina and Vandekerckhove, Joachim},
    year    = {in press},
    journal = {Computational Brain \& Behavior},
    doi     = {10.1007/s42113-026-00276-w}
}